by James Connor

The Connor Post - Exclusive - March 13, 2016

Results analysis: Sachsen-Anhalt

With 24.2% the AfD comes in second, shutting out Merkel's coalition partner, the SPD, by more than double. More than that, they literally took votes from every party across the board, though in particular from the SPD and the extreme left.

Notice also that the FDP didn't make it into government, and that if the Greens hadn't squeaked in, it may have been impossible to form a government without AfD participation. The SPD came not just third, but fourth behind the extreme-left Linke party, which can only add to their humiliation. Overall, pollsters underestimated support for the AfD by between 5 and 10%.

Now the most likely scenario will be that there will be a coalition of strange bedfellows among the CDU, SPD and Greens. This will look similar to the ruling coalition in Sweden, where its only purpose is to shut out the populist Swedish Democrats.

Of course, completely ignoring the will of the voters will have its costs, and you can expect the AfD to offer spirited opposition.

Results analysis: Rheinland-Pfalz

Again, the AfD made fantastic gains, coming in third. This time they succeeded in drastically cutting into the vote of the Greens and chipping away at the vote of the CDU. The extreme-left Linke party was completely obliterated. The FDP, like the Greens, barely survived. The AfD earned more votes and seats than the two of them combined.

It will clearly be another establishment SPD-CDU coalition, but with a weakened mandate and no doubt that the new kid on the block is making great strides.

Results analysis: Baden-Württemberg

In Baden-Württemberg the establishment SPD and CDU parties tanked completely, dropping more than 10% each. The AfD came in a very strong third, and, for the second time, ahead of the SPD.

And it wasn't the ruling CDU who won the night, but in fact the Greens, with more than 30%. The CDU followed with 27%; the AfD beat out the SPD for third place with a respectable 15%. Merkel's coalition partner, the SPD, looks like it is going the way of the FDP into oblivion. And again, the extreme-left Linke party was obliterated, this time with under 3%, below the 5% threshold needed to enter government.

In this case, you can likely expect another anything-that-doesn't-include-the-AfD coalition to be formed... but the writing is on the wall.


The AfD has proven that they are clearly ahead of almost every party in Germany, and maybe even ahead of Germany's oldest party, the SPD. Expect more public denials that there are any problems on the part of the ruling coalition partners CDU and SPD, but it is clear that without changing course, people will be openly talking about the possibility of Chancellor Petry in 2017.

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